MU: The Luck of the Tigers' Big 12 Draw and Beyond

Risk and reward is minimal for Missouri. The Tigers are going to the NCAA Tournament no matter what. Most mock brackets have them as a No. 7 seed and I simply don’t see the NCAA Selection Committee moving a 22-9 team that finished 10-6 in the Big 12 regular season more than up or down one line in the seeding.

I’m not even sure that the outcome of the Missouri-Nebraska first-round game will have any effect at all. Certainly, beating a team you’ve already defeated twice isn’t going to advance your seed.

And by the same token, losing to a team you’ve beaten twice likely keeps you at the same seed by virtue of “Well, they won two of three” logic.

Figure the Tigers make it three for three against the Cornhuskers on Wednesday afternoon. That brings up a Thursday afternoon game against a Texas A&M team that has had something of a whammy on Mizzou the past few seasons and that this season ended MU’s home winning streak at 32 games.

Does a loss to A&M drop the Tigers in the NCAA seedings? Well, it might. But it is more likely that movement for Missouri - or A&M for that matter - will depend on the selectors trying to keep any of the seven Big 12 teams expected to be in the NCAA Tournament from meeting too early, or balancing out the rest of the bracket without unfairly placing teams from other conferences.

Okay, so assume - just for the case of argument - that Missouri defeats A&M and advances to a third game against top-ranked Kansas.

KU has already beaten MU by 19 and 21 points. Those losses are already factored into MU’s seeding. Can you punish Missouri for losing to the likely No. 1 overall tournament seed that has already proven its superiority?

Well, you could. But I don’t see it happening.

Now, suppose Missouri does advance to play KU, and suppose the Tigers do pull what would be one of the upsets of the college basketball season.

By the time that game is played, on Friday, the NCAA likely has already slotted KU in as one of the four No. 1 seeds. And you can’t really reward Missouri too much for winning one of three against the Jayhawks. Maybe you move ‘em up a line.

Quite frankly, even should Missouri make history and become the first team to win four games in four days and win the Big 12 Tournament, I just do not see it effecting Missouri’s seeding all that much.

Possibly a six. I’d doubt a jump to a five. But the NCAA Selection Committee, the day before announcing the field, isn’t going to turn the bracket inside out and start all over.

You see where I’m going?

Missouri is expected to go to the NCAA Tournament again. Likely as a No. 7 seed. Maybe a six, maybe an eight

It would be better for the Tigers to avoid that eight-nine game.

But I see that as of today, Joe Lunardi has Mizzou as a No. 7 seed playing in the West Regional against Wake Forest. With Purdue a No. 2 seed in the next round as the potential MU opponent.

The Tigers could be in the middle of a much worse scenario.

And win, lose or win and lose in the Big 12 Tournament, I think a seven see for the Tigers would be fair.